ojani noa
images Ojani Noa Latino Factory
smisachu
07-30 11:47 AM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is “delta” units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the “Alpha”. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is “delta” units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the “Alpha”. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
wallpaper and and Ojani Noa Story,”
ssa
10-08 01:58 PM
I had H1B valid up to 2010 (3 years extension because of I-140 being approved). Then I traveled abroad and entered US last December using AP. My new I-94 said "paroled in" and had an expiry date of Dec 2008 (till the date the AP was valid). Last week my company applied for transferring my H1B to one of it's subsidiaries as my position was transferred to the new subsidiary. They applied using premium processing and got an approval this week. My new H1 is valid for the next three years now (till 2011) :)
Also, although I entered US using AP I continued working using my old H1B. I did not use EAD. I talked to my attorney and according to them entering on AP does NOT automatically switch you to EAD. You can still keep on working on your original H1B. Since my H1B transfer was approved later I believe they are correct in this regard.
Hope this helps.
Also, although I entered US using AP I continued working using my old H1B. I did not use EAD. I talked to my attorney and according to them entering on AP does NOT automatically switch you to EAD. You can still keep on working on your original H1B. Since my H1B transfer was approved later I believe they are correct in this regard.
Hope this helps.
jfredr
07-15 09:55 AM
signed
2011 Ojani Noa Picture
YesGC_NoGC
10-03 03:33 PM
If you have health insurance (which I doubt) go to some doc. and get some life injected. That will certainly help you in your current situation and you may be able to jump to EB1.:D
May God Bless You.
EB2 india/china... see this..
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21828
and then see this
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21833
ab bajao ghanti... aur chup chap baithe raho
(translation: sit there like a paraplegic in the line and do nothing ... while a massive line jumping is in process... you will keep seeing while all these EB3 "bodyshopped consultants" will continue to slowly port their PDs and get approved ahead of you.. EB2 I/C is in for a really really long wait.
Honestly, these consultants don't even have an H1B worthy job: its not a permanent job offer. They don't get paid fulltime. Let alone their eligibility for a GC ....what a scam!
We need to let uscis know and audit all current and past approved cases from these consultants)
FYI ...With support from a few people .. we are in the process of filing a Direct injunction for stoppage and immediate audit of interfiled/approved cases. But more support would be appreciated.
May God Bless You.
EB2 india/china... see this..
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21828
and then see this
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21833
ab bajao ghanti... aur chup chap baithe raho
(translation: sit there like a paraplegic in the line and do nothing ... while a massive line jumping is in process... you will keep seeing while all these EB3 "bodyshopped consultants" will continue to slowly port their PDs and get approved ahead of you.. EB2 I/C is in for a really really long wait.
Honestly, these consultants don't even have an H1B worthy job: its not a permanent job offer. They don't get paid fulltime. Let alone their eligibility for a GC ....what a scam!
We need to let uscis know and audit all current and past approved cases from these consultants)
FYI ...With support from a few people .. we are in the process of filing a Direct injunction for stoppage and immediate audit of interfiled/approved cases. But more support would be appreciated.
more...
satishku_2000
05-24 05:33 PM
You can call Jose in Mexico and they ll deliver a passport in less than a week. ALL WE NEED IS TO REGISTER A LAWN MOWING FIRM and then BILL THE CLIENT at 100$/Hr for first designing the plan for the mowing on a computer and then getting a MEXICAN to do it for us. ...;-)
AM I BEING REVERSE RACIST? AM I BAD? I think its healthy to speak your mind out against opression based on RACE
Hope I did not offend any one ...I was just frustrated when I made my statements ..
AM I BEING REVERSE RACIST? AM I BAD? I think its healthy to speak your mind out against opression based on RACE
Hope I did not offend any one ...I was just frustrated when I made my statements ..
greenguru
05-21 07:22 PM
India Network Foundation
3956 Town Center Blvd #340
Orlando, FL 32837
Fax: 800-837-6384
Web: http://www.indianetwork.org
Advantages :
1.working with AIG, insurance carrier for many years on offering pre-existing conditions coverage
Hope this helps, call them out as well.
3956 Town Center Blvd #340
Orlando, FL 32837
Fax: 800-837-6384
Web: http://www.indianetwork.org
Advantages :
1.working with AIG, insurance carrier for many years on offering pre-existing conditions coverage
Hope this helps, call them out as well.
more...
gc_kaavaali
12-12 08:38 PM
I won't be a member at all...because if we make anything mandatory and don't let people realize what we are doing...i think people won't become member...
There are so many (lazy) people who access this site and not even bother to become member...
it is like catch 22...If u charge membership fee we will not give access to any of our forums for guests (it should be otherwise what is the use of taking membership)...if u don't give access to our forums how people know what IV is doing...
again it is my personal opinion...i may be wrong...
will you be member? I would propose we charge a mere $25 fee for registering and then monthly contribution of say $25. Then we run special funding drives for lobbying when ever required. Will you be a paid member to come out of GC mess?
Please participate in the poll.
There are so many (lazy) people who access this site and not even bother to become member...
it is like catch 22...If u charge membership fee we will not give access to any of our forums for guests (it should be otherwise what is the use of taking membership)...if u don't give access to our forums how people know what IV is doing...
again it is my personal opinion...i may be wrong...
will you be member? I would propose we charge a mere $25 fee for registering and then monthly contribution of say $25. Then we run special funding drives for lobbying when ever required. Will you be a paid member to come out of GC mess?
Please participate in the poll.
2010 Ojani Noa Photo Gallery,
bobzibub
05-25 02:57 PM
well said... and key point is we are bashing (if that's what you want to call it) the system (we are part of the system) not Americans...
Lot of people fail or choose not to see that.
We do have a right to request prompt, fair service.
We do have a right to expect to be treated by the system as we treat the system: with respect.
If we do not actively seek to change the system for the better, then who will?
There is no injustice that some justify with "well, he's illegal!" or "He's not American!" It is not acceptable. Not just because it is unfair to us, but because there are no bounds to it.
If early Americans just accepted how the British treated them, there would be no United States. Not arguing for revolution, but I am saying that any efficiency that exists today exists because of the demand for it. Regardless of citizenship.
Lot of people fail or choose not to see that.
We do have a right to request prompt, fair service.
We do have a right to expect to be treated by the system as we treat the system: with respect.
If we do not actively seek to change the system for the better, then who will?
There is no injustice that some justify with "well, he's illegal!" or "He's not American!" It is not acceptable. Not just because it is unfair to us, but because there are no bounds to it.
If early Americans just accepted how the British treated them, there would be no United States. Not arguing for revolution, but I am saying that any efficiency that exists today exists because of the demand for it. Regardless of citizenship.
more...
ss_col
01-31 10:07 AM
Voted and forwarded to friends to vote. You cannot vote twice as someone had earlier suggested.
hair Jennifer Lopez#39;s ex, Ojani Noa
ItIsNotFunny
03-11 11:25 AM
Lets take mystery out from USCIS. Please contribute:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=24184
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=24184
more...
yabadaba
07-19 06:19 AM
can we please just post our filling status here? lets not freak out by what some customer rep says. Wait for at least 2 more weeks before you call and ask them status ec.
every lawyer i know has said that if it was rejected u would have gotten it by now.. everyone else is under the impression that the apps were held... till they made a decision.
every lawyer i know has said that if it was rejected u would have gotten it by now.. everyone else is under the impression that the apps were held... till they made a decision.
hot Ojani Noa has failed!
unchew
06-09 11:43 PM
discualify theeemmm! You said no mods... that way I would have less competition! (j/k) :P
more...
house Ojani Noa and Jennifer Lopez
villamonte6100
11-02 03:21 PM
What are you smoking dude? You 100 people go back, 1000s more are in line to replace them. Get real..!!
You're rigth.
You're rigth.
tattoo Jennifer Lopez et Ojani Noa
ThinkTwice
07-11 05:08 PM
Non Bay area members please volunteer to call, inform and encourage IV members to join the rally.
The Active Bay area chapter members are swamped with other action items.
Please Help!
Fellow IVians or IVers. Whichever you prefer:
You may not be able to attend the San Jose rally but you can still be part of the effort by volunteering to help call the members in California and inform them about this event. You can call even if you are on the East Coast. This is urgent!
This will help us focus on other logistic issues like banners, posting flyers.
Your help will make the San Jose peaceful walk a success!
The Active Bay area chapter members are swamped with other action items.
Please Help!
Fellow IVians or IVers. Whichever you prefer:
You may not be able to attend the San Jose rally but you can still be part of the effort by volunteering to help call the members in California and inform them about this event. You can call even if you are on the East Coast. This is urgent!
This will help us focus on other logistic issues like banners, posting flyers.
Your help will make the San Jose peaceful walk a success!
more...
pictures Lopez and Ojani Noa attend the
mk26
01-21 09:54 AM
I am in , can any one tell me if we can fight to get our social security money if they target only H1bs, why don't they do this also who will deported should get the money contributed to social security and medicare
dresses Ojani Noa in 2005.
go_guy123
02-01 02:11 PM
Same old blah blah blah we cannot and should not keep reacting to such nonsense. A fraction of what he told is true but he is blowing it out of proportion. Lets not post such nonsense here which is the standard stump speech of anti immigration folks
Ofcourse indian companies started misusing and abusing tehsystem to
the limit. I know Wipro paying 1500$ per month to people on L1
in Stamford , CT .
Stamford CT is an expensive place with 2 bedroom rent like 1800$.
When indian companies do all this what/how do you expect people
to react.
Now the local population has become hostile to H1B and anything
related to skilled immigration.
It wasnt like that before...say 10 years back.
Ofcourse indian companies started misusing and abusing tehsystem to
the limit. I know Wipro paying 1500$ per month to people on L1
in Stamford , CT .
Stamford CT is an expensive place with 2 bedroom rent like 1800$.
When indian companies do all this what/how do you expect people
to react.
Now the local population has become hostile to H1B and anything
related to skilled immigration.
It wasnt like that before...say 10 years back.
more...
makeup Photo of Ojani Noa. Cuban chef
Vsach
03-13 08:18 PM
I am still on H1 (not utilized EAD), the visa on my passport expired last year. Planning to visit India next week, should I be getting a visa stamped or use AP?
APPRECIATE INPUTS. Any USCIS link will also help.
Regards
AFAIK, logiclife and pappu are just temporarily off IV due to some other priorities and will get back on board with a big bang soon. How do I know? I spoke to pappu recently.
Other core members, I am not sure, but will let a core member answer :)
APPRECIATE INPUTS. Any USCIS link will also help.
Regards
AFAIK, logiclife and pappu are just temporarily off IV due to some other priorities and will get back on board with a big bang soon. How do I know? I spoke to pappu recently.
Other core members, I am not sure, but will let a core member answer :)
girlfriend letter to Ojani Noa,
venky08
11-10 03:46 AM
:D
right on money!!!- you stole my thoughts dude...thats exactly how i think...
Using H1B makes one safe. but how many years we want to do the safe job. If I-485 gets denied do u have enough patiences to file another green card. One thing is believe is "We are here to make money, most of us are in our thirties and we have short time remaining to reach our goals. I think we all have one year EAD. wait for 6 months then go on job hopping, learn whatever you can, get into whatever you want. Start a business, do something.... Anything you do will help you in future. Sitting with H1B in pocket may take 4 years cream of your life.
If you have the talent you can get great salaries anywhere in the world. Because of your talents and hard work you guys are here. World is not small.
right on money!!!- you stole my thoughts dude...thats exactly how i think...
Using H1B makes one safe. but how many years we want to do the safe job. If I-485 gets denied do u have enough patiences to file another green card. One thing is believe is "We are here to make money, most of us are in our thirties and we have short time remaining to reach our goals. I think we all have one year EAD. wait for 6 months then go on job hopping, learn whatever you can, get into whatever you want. Start a business, do something.... Anything you do will help you in future. Sitting with H1B in pocket may take 4 years cream of your life.
If you have the talent you can get great salaries anywhere in the world. Because of your talents and hard work you guys are here. World is not small.
hairstyles ex-husband Ojani Noa today
raj2007
06-16 12:50 AM
To raaj2007, just getting an EAD does not nullify your H1, but if you use EAD you loose H1. Go and check with your attorney. If you use EAD you cannot enter US using H1 or H4, you have to use Advance parole.
Adding to the replies to other post
(i) I heard after filing 485 I could change employers? Yes or no? If yes, then which state would I be in? (EAD, AP or none)?
Answer - You can change employer after 180 days of pending 485 using AC 21 and you would be in EAD and use AP to enter US
(ii) After filing 485, do I HAVE to get my wife into US before the dates retrogress again?? Whoa never heard that...are you sure?
Answer -Yes, if you dont, you would not be able to file for her if the dates retrogresses again, also to file 485 for your wife , she should be in US at the time of filing 485.
(iii) Is there no step after 485 filing that I can keep postponing to not let 485 approve (like delaying 485 fingerprinting multiple times) so that I can let 485 approve only after I am married and can bring my wife in?
Answer - No, you cannot postpone it on your own will. But if your marriage date is before 485 approval (even one day) and tour wife could not make it to US, she can come to US using follow to join process. That process is also available if PD are current. In that scenario you ask USCIS to send US consulate in India to send a notice that the principal applicant's 485 has been approved and since the marriage was before 485 approval, she should be called for Interview at the US consulate in India and given the immigrant VISA, The Follow to join process is like Consular Processing.
Hope I answered your doubts.
It again depends..if you use EAD with same employer .you will not use your h1. I have done that and very clear on that.
Adding to the replies to other post
(i) I heard after filing 485 I could change employers? Yes or no? If yes, then which state would I be in? (EAD, AP or none)?
Answer - You can change employer after 180 days of pending 485 using AC 21 and you would be in EAD and use AP to enter US
(ii) After filing 485, do I HAVE to get my wife into US before the dates retrogress again?? Whoa never heard that...are you sure?
Answer -Yes, if you dont, you would not be able to file for her if the dates retrogresses again, also to file 485 for your wife , she should be in US at the time of filing 485.
(iii) Is there no step after 485 filing that I can keep postponing to not let 485 approve (like delaying 485 fingerprinting multiple times) so that I can let 485 approve only after I am married and can bring my wife in?
Answer - No, you cannot postpone it on your own will. But if your marriage date is before 485 approval (even one day) and tour wife could not make it to US, she can come to US using follow to join process. That process is also available if PD are current. In that scenario you ask USCIS to send US consulate in India to send a notice that the principal applicant's 485 has been approved and since the marriage was before 485 approval, she should be called for Interview at the US consulate in India and given the immigrant VISA, The Follow to join process is like Consular Processing.
Hope I answered your doubts.
It again depends..if you use EAD with same employer .you will not use your h1. I have done that and very clear on that.
ras
07-03 03:25 AM
Yes. That member and probably other such members are now on other site posting anti-IV posts.....
It is shameful to have such members among us.
Anyways, good thread. This site should help people fix the broken system rather than abuse each other or track all day. I hope due to the discussion, people can get some ideas and take action against such employers. IV will be willing to help as needed.
Wish discussions on this thread leads to some concrete suggestions/steps that one take to counter an abusive employer. and ofcourse IV should take steps to make these employers visible to the whole community so that others will not fall pray to them. Exposing abusive employers to the whole community is the most important thing that could thwart efforts of exploitation by such employers. This sounds some times more effective than than even going legal or to DOL.
It is shameful to have such members among us.
Anyways, good thread. This site should help people fix the broken system rather than abuse each other or track all day. I hope due to the discussion, people can get some ideas and take action against such employers. IV will be willing to help as needed.
Wish discussions on this thread leads to some concrete suggestions/steps that one take to counter an abusive employer. and ofcourse IV should take steps to make these employers visible to the whole community so that others will not fall pray to them. Exposing abusive employers to the whole community is the most important thing that could thwart efforts of exploitation by such employers. This sounds some times more effective than than even going legal or to DOL.
485Mbe4001
08-12 01:03 PM
If you look at the PD progress for EB3 I, the only movement was during March and April 07.
Oct 07 - 22Apr 01
Nov 07 - 22 Apr
.. - 1 May 01
.. - 1 May 01
.. - 8 May 01
.. - 1 Aug 01
.. Oct 01
.. Nov 01
.. Nov 01
and U there after.
if the recapture bill doesnt pass, we are looking at something similar this year too, very little movement. My guess is that EB 2 I is also going to retrogress a bit, simply because of the number of applicants in that category. EB 3 ROW will also see slow movement because of the distribution pattern.
Oct 07 - 22Apr 01
Nov 07 - 22 Apr
.. - 1 May 01
.. - 1 May 01
.. - 8 May 01
.. - 1 Aug 01
.. Oct 01
.. Nov 01
.. Nov 01
and U there after.
if the recapture bill doesnt pass, we are looking at something similar this year too, very little movement. My guess is that EB 2 I is also going to retrogress a bit, simply because of the number of applicants in that category. EB 3 ROW will also see slow movement because of the distribution pattern.
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